When Bernardo Arevalo won Guatemala’s presidential run-off vote on Aug. 20, it marked the end of over a decade of conservative leadership. However, concerns have arisen over Arevalo’s plan to strengthen ties with China, which could pose a problem for the United States and Taiwan. Currently, Guatemala is one of only 13 countries that recognizes Taiwan over Beijing, and it is one of Taiwan’s last remaining allies in Central America. The Chinese Foreign Ministry expressed their desire for Guatemala’s new president to establish diplomatic ties with China, indicating that developing relations with China is in Guatemala’s best interest. Arevalo gained popularity during his campaign due to his tough stance on crime and corruption, but he also emphasized the need for increased business with China.
While on the surface this may seem like a good plan, historical evidence suggests that expanding relations with China goes beyond just trade. Beijing has a track record of using trade and investment deals to advance its political agenda in Latin American countries like Argentina, Bolivia, Nicaragua, Peru, Cuba, and Venezuela, often leading to anti-U.S. sentiment. Some analysts believe that once China establishes economic ties with a government, they also push their political agenda, aimed at displacing U.S. hegemony and isolating Taiwan. Eduardo Hoffmann, a Latin America economics analyst, likens the Chinese Communist Party to a drug cartel, noting that it is not wise to get on their bad side.
Experts warn that China’s political influence extends beyond just trade. They engage with every level of a country, including academia, politics, medicine, media, and security. China’s imports from Guatemala have been steadily increasing, particularly in mineral commodities, and while the United States remains Guatemala’s most valuable trading partner, Arevalo may be seeking the protection and financial backing of a major international actor like China to address the country’s economic woes. However, this could come at a price, as China’s corrupt practices may be advantageous to leaders willing to forego their moral compass.
Moreover, Guatemala’s deeply rooted corruption poses a significant challenge for the new administration. While Arevalo talked tough on government corruption during his campaign, experts believe that if the money is coming from Beijing, it will be business as usual. The International Commission Against Impunity in Guatemala has prosecuted numerous high-profile individuals and officials for corruption, but the problem persists across political parties. To combat corruption effectively, Guatemala needs to bring its political institutions into the 21st century, which will be no easy task.
Since Arevalo’s election win, there have been obstacles on the road to his inauguration in January 2024. His political party, Seed Movement, was temporarily suspended over an investigation into alleged false signatures on registration documents. The suspension was later overturned, but it highlights the challenges and power struggles involved in Guatemalan politics. Sandra Torres, Arevalo’s opponent in the election, also filed a complaint alleging election fraud. Moreover, there has been a loss of faith in democracy among Guatemalans, as indicated by a recent poll.
In summary, Arevalo’s plan to strengthen ties with China raises concerns about China’s political agenda and the potential impact on Guatemala’s relationship with the United States and Taiwan. The history of China’s expanding influence in Latin America suggests that economic engagement often goes hand in hand with political influence. Guatemala’s deep-rooted corruption and power struggles within its political institutions further complicate the situation. While the economic benefits may be appealing, experts caution that Guatemala must carefully navigate its relationship with China to avoid negative consequences.