With the United States and China engaged in strategic competition, the Philippines has become a significant player in the geopolitics of the Asia-Pacific region. Qin Gang, China’s Foreign Minister, recently visited the Philippines in an attempt to repair the damage to the bilateral relationship caused by China’s aggressive behavior. However, according to an international observer, Qin’s visit may not yield any positive results.
The Philippines has increased cooperation with the United States on national security, opening four military bases to the US military and launching the largest joint military exercise in decades. Meanwhile, the relationship between the Philippines and the Chinese communist regime has worsened due to China’s aggression in the South China Sea.
During his visit, Qin expressed China’s willingness to work with the Philippines to resolve their differences in the South China Sea. However, experts believe that the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) will find it challenging to restore relations with the Philippines.
Ferdinand Marcos Jr. pledged to continue his predecessor’s diplomatic engagement policy with China during his presidential campaign. However, he changed his stance after being elected and asserted that the Philippines would not relinquish any of its territory to foreign powers. Marcos Jr.’s policy change can be attributed to China’s failure to deliver on its promises to invest in the Philippines and the CCP’s harassment of Filipino fishermen.
Qin’s visit to the Philippines coincided with the largest US-Philippine joint military exercise in decades, involving more than 17,000 personnel from both countries. The CCP’s tense relationship with the Philippines and the closer military cooperation between the Philippines and the United States prompted Qin’s urgent visit to the Philippines. He sought to mend the deteriorating relationship between the two countries through diplomatic or economic incentives.
Despite Qin’s efforts, many believe that it is impossible for Marcos Jr. to maintain a friendly relationship with the CCP. Marcos Jr. is determined to turn to the United States to resist China’s aggression and protect national and regional security. The CCP’s communication lines have failed to gain the trust of the international community, and the traditionally established hotlines between China and the United States have been cut off by the CCP.