Alberta’s two major political parties, the New Democratic Party (NDP) and the United Conservative Party (UCP), are competing to break the tie after both holding majority governments for one term. Despite this, political science professor Geoffrey Hale of the University of Lethbridge warns that past performance is only one indicator of future performance due to the significant political and economic changes that have occurred in Alberta over the past eight years.
During their tenure from 2015 to 2019, the NDP government increased the minimum wage to $15 an hour, raised the tax on corporations by 2%, eliminated the province’s 10% flat tax, and brought in targeted tax increases for high-income earners. They also undertook a nine-month long review of royalty rates and supported pipeline expansion while implementing the Climate Leadership Plan and a provincial carbon tax. The NDP expanded healthcare initiatives, increased funding for schools, and created supervised drug injection sites.
The UCP, in power from 2019 to 2023, rolled back some of the NDP’s changes with the Farm Freedom and Safety Act and introduced the Job Creation Tax Cut initiative, which lowered general business tax from 12% to 8%. They also repealed the provincial carbon tax, created the Canadian Energy Centre, and launched a public inquiry into anti-Alberta energy campaigns. The UCP’s education initiatives included affirming parents’ primary responsibility for their children’s education while rolling back an NDP rule that didn’t allow informing parents when their child joined a gay-straight alliance.
Overall, the political landscape in Alberta is highly uncertain, making it difficult to predict future outcomes based on past performance.