Premier Danielle Smith has stated that she will not call for a referendum on Alberta’s exit from the Canada Pension Plan (CPP) until there is a concrete and finalized number on how much the province would receive if it decides to go independent. Smith emphasized the need for Albertans to have the necessary information before making a decision, stating, “I’m not going to go to a referendum if people don’t have the information that they need in order to make a decision.”
Smith mentioned that the number could potentially be determined through an agreement with Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s government and the Canada Pension Plan Investment Board (CPPIB). However, if an agreement cannot be reached, it may have to be settled through a court decision due to the legislation outlined in the CPP Act.
Opposition NDP house leader Christina Gray echoed the sentiment that Albertans deserve to know the firm numbers before casting their votes. Gray emphasized the need to hold the government accountable, particularly as their agenda regarding the CPP is not aligned with the desires of Albertans.
The government has been engaging in consultations with Albertans for over a month to discuss the pros and cons of leaving the CPP and establishing an Alberta pension plan. The government released a report from consultant LifeWorks, which estimated that Alberta would be entitled to over half of all CPP assets, amounting to approximately $334 billion, if it were to leave. This estimation takes into account investment returns and compound interest.
However, economists and analysts have presented different figures regarding Alberta’s entitlement to CPP funds, with estimates ranging from 16 to 25 percent. To gauge public opinion on the matter, former provincial treasurer Jim Dinning has been hired by the province to engage with Albertans and provide a recommendation to Premier Smith next spring regarding the possibility of a referendum.
Critics of the government’s engagement process have highlighted concerns about biased information and a lack of transparency. They argue that the government’s advertising only focuses on the benefits of an Alberta pension plan, neglecting to mention the potential risks and downsides. The online survey also does not directly ask whether Albertans want to leave the CPP, but rather how they would like an Alberta plan structured.
Recently, the issue has gained national attention, with federal Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland agreeing to convene a meeting with provincial and territorial finance ministers to discuss Alberta’s proposal to leave the CPP. The decision to hold the meeting came after Ontario Finance Minister Peter Bethlenfalvy expressed concern about the potential harm to working people and retirees if Alberta were to withdraw from the CPP.
In response to the discussion, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau affirmed his government’s commitment to retaining the stability and integrity of the CPP, while Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre encouraged Albertans to remain within the federal pension plan.