Residents of Canada’s East Coast are concerned about the potential path of Hurricane Lee. Computer-generated forecasts have produced maps that indicate the powerful storm could hit the Maritimes late next week. However, Chris Fogarty from the Canadian Hurricane Centre warns that these long-range models have limited value at this point. Spaghetti models, which show the predicted tracks of hurricanes in a scattered and confusing manner, are not reliable beyond about five days. They often fail to represent the full range of possible tracks. For example, Hurricane Franklin’s actual path differed greatly from the 10-day spaghetti model predictions.
Fogarty explained that while the Canadian Hurricane Centre uses spaghetti models for analysis, they do not display them on Environment Canada’s website or in their tweets. These diagrams can be confusing for the general public. Instead, the centre provides its own hurricane track map, which offers a five-day forecast. Currently, Hurricane Lee has weakened from a Category 5 storm to a Category 4 storm with sustained winds of 250 kilometers per hour. The National Hurricane Center in Miami predicts that Lee will remain a powerful hurricane and cause dangerous surf and rip currents along the U.S. East Coast.