Russia’s parliament has taken the first step towards revoking ratification of the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty (CTBT), with its top lawmaker warning that Moscow may even abandon the pact altogether. The objective, according to Russia, is to restore parity with the United States, which signed but never ratified the treaty in 1996. Russia asserts that it will not resume testing unless the US does so. However, there are concerns among arms control experts that Russia’s actions could lead to a nuclear test, which the West would view as a Russian nuclear escalation in the midst of the Ukraine war.
In a vote by the lower house of parliament, the Duma, 412 members voted in favor of the withdrawal of ratification in the first reading, with no abstentions or opposing votes. Speaker Vyacheslav Volodin, a member of President Vladimir Putin’s Security Council, stated that the vote was a response to the US’s neglect of its duties to maintain global security. He added that Russia will not divulge its next move regarding its membership in the treaty and emphasized the importance of acting in the best interests of global security and the safety of Russian citizens. Volodin also mentioned that the US had urged Russia not to revoke ratification through the UN, pointing out Washington’s failure to ratify the CTBT for the past 23 years.
President Putin stated on October 5 that he was unable to determine whether Russia should resume nuclear testing, despite calls from Russian security experts and lawmakers. While Russia is revoking ratification, it intends to remain a signatory to the CTBT and will continue providing data to the global monitoring system for nuclear tests.
Andrey Baklitskiy, a senior researcher at the United Nations Institute for Disarmament Research, sees Russia’s withdrawal from the CTBT as a step towards resuming nuclear testing. Although he does not believe that a Russian test is imminent, he explains that the more Russia moves in this direction, the easier it would be for them to proceed with one. Satellite images published by CNN last month revealed that Russia, the US, and China have all constructed new facilities at their nuclear test sites in recent years.
The resumption of nuclear tests by any of the major powers, Russia, the US, or China, could potentially trigger a new nuclear arms race. During the Cold War, extensive nuclear testing demonstrated the dangers of nuclear brinkmanship, which could lead to the destruction of humanity and long-term contamination of the planet. The ongoing tensions between Russia and the US, heightened by the Ukraine war, coupled with China’s efforts to strengthen its nuclear arsenal, have added further complexities to the situation. Despite these circumstances, Putin maintains that there is no need to change Russia’s nuclear doctrine, which states that nuclear weapons would only be used in response to an attack or a threat to the state’s existence by conventional weapons.
Since the CTBT was signed, there have been 10 nuclear tests, with India conducting two in 1998, Pakistan also conducting two in 1998, and North Korea conducting tests in 2006, 2009, 2013, twice in 2016, and 2017, according to the United Nations.