Russia is considering revoking its ratification of the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty (CTBT) following President Vladimir Putin’s suggestion of resuming nuclear testing. Although Putin stated that Russia’s nuclear doctrine did not require updating, he did not confirm whether Moscow needed to conduct nuclear tests. Putin highlighted that Russia could consider revoking ratification of the CTBT since the United States had signed but not ratified the treaty. Vyacheslav Volodin, Russia’s top lawmaker, indicated that the State Duma would promptly evaluate the necessity of revoking Russia’s ratification.
These developments suggest that Russia is seriously contemplating the revocation of the treaty, which bans nuclear explosions worldwide. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov clarified that the objective was to establish a “common denominator” between Russia and the United States but emphasized that this did not imply an intention to conduct nuclear tests. Nevertheless, Putin’s comments implied the possibility of resuming tests, particularly in relation to ensuring the effectiveness of new weapons.
The resumption of nuclear testing by Russia, the United States, or China could trigger a new nuclear arms race among major powers. Such testing during the Cold War exemplified the dangers of nuclear brinkmanship, with potentially catastrophic consequences for humanity and the environment. Tensions between Moscow and Washington, heightened by the Ukraine war, have reached levels not seen since the Cuban Missile Crisis of 1962. Simultaneously, China aims to enhance its nuclear arsenal as it emerges as a global superpower. According to the Federation of American Scientists, Russia currently possesses approximately 5,889 nuclear warheads, while the United States has 5,244. China has 410 warheads, with France and Britain having 290 and 225 warheads, respectively.
A visual recount of history reveals that between 1945 and the 1996 Comprehensive Nuclear Test-Ban Treaty, more than 2,000 nuclear tests were conducted—1,032 by the United States and 715 by the Soviet Union. The Soviet Union’s last test occurred in 1990, while the United States conducted its most recent test in 1992. However, signs suggest that testing could resume. Putin announced that Russia had successfully tested the Burevestnik, a nuclear-powered and nuclear-capable cruise missile, which he claimed possessed unparalleled capabilities. Furthermore, China’s construction of numerous intercontinental ballistic missile silos, as disclosed in the 2023 Annual Threat Assessment by the U.S. intelligence community, indicates its ambitions for strategic rivalry with the United States. The U.S. threat assessment emphasizes that China and Russia seek strategic stability through the development of various weapons capabilities, potentially challenging traditional arms control agreements. Achieving consensus on new weapon definitions or verification measures, particularly at the multilateral level, may prove difficult.