Sir John Curtice, one of Britain’s most respected polling analysts, highlighted significant differences in opinions on how to achieve net zero. He noted that self-identified Conservative and Labour voters have conflicting views, especially regarding taxation and bans. According to polling data, about 75 percent of people in the UK are concerned about climate change and support the goal of reaching net zero.
However, when it comes to specific measures such as taxing people to discourage flying or implementing bans and limitations, opinions diverge. Sir John explained that only around 18 percent of Conservative voters backed the proposal to ban the sale of petrol and diesel cars by 2030, while the figure among Labour supporters was in the high 40s. He emphasized that despite the general desire to address climate change, there is still a debate on the most effective approach, which aligns with the traditional division between the two major parties.
Sir John also mentioned that Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s recent U-turn on green policies may be an attempt to improve his party’s popularity. However, he noted that the crucial factor for voters in the upcoming general election, likely to be held in October 2024, will be the cost of living. Sir John questioned whether the government’s actions, apart from encouraging the installation of heat pumps, would be enough to convince voters that the cost of living crisis has been adequately addressed.
Looking ahead, Sir John highlighted that the incoming government, regardless of its political affiliation, will face numerous substantial problems. He pointed out that the UK has a high government debt-to-GDP ratio, significant levels of taxation, and high public spending. Despite high public spending, public satisfaction with the National Health Service (NHS) is at a record low level, and the closure of school buildings due to structural issues is becoming a symbol of the nation’s deteriorating infrastructure.
Sir John also addressed the issue of illegal immigration, stating that it will likely be a significant concern in the next election. Conservative voters are more concerned about this issue and tend to support the government’s policies, while Labour voters are less inclined to do so. However, he pointed out that it remains unclear whether those who previously voted Conservative in 2019 because they expected reduced immigration are less likely to support the party now.
In conclusion, Sir John cautioned that the Conservative Party must address the lack of trust resulting from recent scandals and the economic fallout from previous budget decisions. He acknowledged that the party is attempting to appeal to its base but warned that it may be “tilting at windmills” and facing doubt about the effectiveness of their efforts. The future success of Prime Minister Sunak’s governance remains uncertain, and recent by-election results in Scotland may have implications for Labour’s dominance in the region.