Questions are emerging regarding the stability of the Chinese Communist Party as significant leadership changes take place. The sudden disappearance of China’s defense chief, Li Shangfu, just months after assuming the position, has raised concerns about his fate and the overall stability of the party. Reports from sources in China and US officials suggest that Li may have been stripped of his responsibilities and could be under investigation for corruption. This would make him the fourth senior Chinese official to fall from grace in less than a year under Xi Jinping’s third term. The unexpected absence follows a series of abrupt reshufflings within the top ranks of China’s communist leadership, including the unexpected removal of the former foreign minister, Qin Gang.
The removal of these high-ranking officials and their replacements from outside their respective branches has surprised long-time China observers like Gordon Chang. He views these developments as a sign of “turbulence inside the Chinese regime.” Chang suggests that either Xi Jinping changed his mind or that his enemies were able to remove one of his appointees. This follows a typical pattern in communist party politics, where lower-level officials are targeted first and the chain of command is gradually disrupted until the position of the desired target becomes untenable.
US Senator Marco Rubio believes these changes are part of Xi’s effort to consolidate control and maintain his authoritarian grip on power. He sees the disappearance of Li Shangfu, the replacement of Rocket Force leadership, and the mysterious vanishings of Chinese scientists during the COVID pandemic as warning signs of Xi’s willingness to go to any lengths to eliminate perceived threats. The Chinese government has remained tight-lipped about Li’s absence. When asked, a spokesperson for the foreign ministry claimed to be unaware of the situation, but the way she responded led independent political commentator Cai Shenkun to believe that something must have happened to Li.
The secrecy surrounding these leadership changes is in line with the Chinese regime’s control over the media and its tendency to cover up the truth to maintain public discourse. Senator Marsha Blackburn argues that the circumstances remain unclear, but China’s playbook involves disappearing top leaders, and Xi is under tremendous pressure due to the state of the country’s economy. Additionally, the death of two high-ranking military officials and the lack of clarity surrounding their deaths have fueled rumors and speculation.
Gordon Chang suggests that the current political turmoil may have led Xi to skip the G20 summit in New Delhi. He believes that the situation in Beijing is too volatile and dangerous for Xi to leave. The Chinese regime has always been concerned about assassination, and Xi may be particularly worried about it. It is significant that these signs of political instability are occurring at the beginning of Xi’s third term, a term that some people in Beijing believed he should not have. Independent political commentator Cai Shenkun argues that Xi’s grip on power has made him influential enemies in the military and senior leadership. He believes Xi has enemies on all sides and that in a state of insecurity, even a small incident could lead to Xi launching a probe on anyone he suspects of disloyalty.
While reports suggest that China’s defense minister is under investigation, US officials have denied knowledge of Li’s status. They reiterate their readiness to engage with the Chinese government, regardless of who holds positions of responsibility. The most outspoken official on this issue so far has been US Ambassador to Japan, Rahm Emanuel, who likened President Xi’s cabinet lineup to the novel “And Then There Were None” by Agatha Christie.