China’s communist leadership is predicted to invade Taiwan if it deems unification with the island to be unlikely by mid-century, according to experts. The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) must believe that there is a chance for unification for there to be no war, stated Chad Sbragia, a research analyst at the Institute for Defense Analyses think tank. If unification appears unlikely, conflict becomes highly probable. Despite Taiwan maintaining de facto independence since 1949, the CCP believes it is part of China and must be united with the mainland. CCP leader Xi Jinping has linked the unification of the two nations to his goal of making China a leading superpower by 2049, the 100th anniversary of the CCP’s takeover. As this date approaches or if unification seems unviable, the regime becomes increasingly likely to instigate a war for Taiwan.
Mr. Sbragia emphasized that the goal of 2049 creates a countdown, increasing the likelihood of overt hostilities the longer peaceful unification is delayed. He also stated that even if the CCP believes it cannot win a war with Taiwan, it would not be deterred from military action. Mr. Sbragia, who previously served as the deputy assistant secretary of defense for China during the Trump administration, shared that Chinese military leadership expressed this sentiment during his tenure.
The situation between China, Taiwan, and the United States is characterized by progressively worsening conditions over time. Mr. Sbragia stressed that China’s commitment to its unification timeline takes precedence over avoiding war. Unless peaceful arrangements are reached by both sides, conflict is deemed inevitable. To mitigate this outcome, the United States should strive to convince the CCP that peaceful unification is possible or, at the very least, not signal that it is impossible, according to Bonnie Glaser, a managing director for the German Marshall Fund think tank. She emphasized that it is unwise for Taiwan and the United States to pursue policies that suggest an impossible outcome.
Ms. Glaser further stated that the CCP would invade Taiwan regardless of the cost if it believes the island is on a clear path to declaring formal independence and if it perceives U.S. support for such independence. Conversely, if Mr. Xi and the CCP still hold on to the idea of peaceful unification, war is not yet inevitable. The Biden administration, however, has not affirmed that it would accept any peaceful resolution to the crisis, going against the precedent set by previous administrations. This absence of affirmation is seen as problematic by Ms. Glaser.