The relationship between South Korea and China has shown signs of strain since President Yoon took office. However, Chinese leader Xi Jinping’s proposal for a state visit to South Korea signifies a new chapter in strategic relations between the two nations. This move is seen as part of a larger initiative to foster peace on the Korean Peninsula. Experts believe that Xi’s overture is a countermeasure to the burgeoning alliance between North Korea and Russia, which could disrupt China’s influence in the region. South Korea’s military capabilities make it a significant factor in China’s calculations, and Xi aims to dismantle the trilateral alliance between the United States, Japan, and South Korea.
There has been a noticeable shift in South Korea’s economic reliance on China. Statistics from the Korea International Trade Association show that South Korea’s reliance on the Chinese export market has decreased. This decline corresponds with South Korea’s efforts to align more closely with U.S. policies and restrict high-end semiconductor exports to China. As a result, exports to China have plummeted. South Korea has also been diversifying its export markets, with exports to the United States, India, Australia, and Vietnam increasing. This declining economic reliance on China could have geopolitical consequences and may explain why Xi is making efforts to improve relations with South Korea.
The installation of the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) missile system in South Korea by the United States has been a point of contention for China. Under the previous administration of President Moon Jae-in, Beijing successfully pressured South Korea to limit further deployments. However, the current administration under President Yoon has deviated from this stance and strengthened military ties with the United States and Japan. This policy reversal has strained China-South Korea relations further. The recent Camp David Summit between the United States, Japan, and South Korea has marked a significant milestone in mending Japan-South Korea relations and has isolated China geopolitically.
North Korea’s diplomatic moves with Russia have unsettled China, as the traditionally close relationship between China and North Korea seems increasingly fragile. North Korean leader Kim Jong-un’s visit to Russia included meetings with Russian President Vladimir Putin and tours of key Russian facilities. It is speculated that the two nations have entered agreements related to military technology and weaponry. This newfound partnership has caught the attention of the United States, Japan, and South Korea and has raised concerns in China. A substantial alliance between North Korea and Russia could weaken China’s grip on its ally and pose a strategic threat. South Korea remains the only nation capable of countering North Korea’s influence militarily.
China’s leader Xi Jinping is facing mounting domestic pressures as the country faces crises at home and abroad. Analysts suggest that his attempts to mend relations with South Korea may be a desperate bid to regain stability and success. Xi is facing opposition within the Communist Party and criticism from foreign leaders. China’s economy is on the verge of collapse, with crises unfolding in the real estate sector and financial instability. Xi has responded by purging the military and his inner circle, but the challenges he faces are immense.