The recent cuts to the number of local police stations in China amid increasing social unrest are believed to be an attempt to address the crisis of shrinking local government revenue caused by the decline of China’s economy and are seen as a possible sign of an eventual regime collapse, similar to the eve of the former East European Communist Bloc’s collapse in 1989. The Meizhou Daily reported that the Meizhou Municipal Public Security Bureau had announced the cancelation of two police stations, citing the need to “effectively integrate existing police resources.”
Similar plans to “dismantle and consolidate” local police stations have been announced by public security bureaus in other provinces, such as Qingdao, Yantai, and Weifang in Shandong. Chinese observers attribute these actions to the decline of China’s economy, a sluggish real estate market, and record high local government debts. The resulting financial crisis has led to salary cuts for civil servants, prompting draconian measures by local governments to scrape together funding.
Chinese legal expert Lai Jianping and Taiwan-based political analyst Cheng Chin-mo both warn of the potential for great social unrest as a result of the financial crisis, leading to conflicts and the collapse of the Chinese Communist regime. Lai predicts that the decision to lay off police and security personnel, and to cut salaries and benefits for those who remain, could have a detrimental effect on their morale and the regime’s ability to maintain stability. He also warns that the recently laid-off individuals may resort to desperate measures, joining gangs and increasing criminal activities.
Cheng also sees the reduction of policing forces as a sign of the disintegration of the entire social order, drawing parallels to the collapses of communist regimes in Central and Eastern Europe. He predicts that the downsizing of military forces may be next and warns that these laid-off individuals, who were formerly organized and trained, may become an anti-government force in the future.
The situation in China is of great concern, with the potential for a significant backlash and eventual regime collapse. The observed patterns in China mirror the events preceding the collapses of former communist regimes in Central and Eastern Europe, serving as a warning of the impending crisis and potential downfall of the Chinese Communist Party.