The Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) lack of amphibious combat capability and internal military purge are key factors preventing them from forcibly annexing Taiwan. Despite recent denials from Beijing about any plans to attack Taiwan in the coming years, experts in Taiwan believe the CCP is actively preparing for such an eventuality. Li Zhengxiu of Taiwan’s National Policy Research Foundation stated that while the CCP currently has no specific plans for an attack, they are making preparations for potential conflict in the Taiwan Strait.
President Joe Biden’s talks with Chinese Communist Party (CCP) leader Xi Jinping during the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit in San Francisco led to a temporary reduction in the CCP’s military activities around Taiwan. However, after the summit, the CCP resumed air incursions over the Taiwan Strait, signaling a continued military presence in the region. The United States and CCP hold differing views on the Taiwan issue, with the U.S. opposing any unilateral changes to the status quo.
Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense reported increased Chinese military activities around Taiwan following the APEC summit. These activities included military aircraft sorties and the crossing of the central line of the Taiwan Strait, previously considered a “red line” between China and Taiwan. Shu Hsiao-Huang, an associate researcher at Taiwan’s Institute of National Defense and Security, emphasized the CCP’s inadequate amphibious combat capability, suggesting that their military strength lies in technology-dominated battlegrounds rather than human wave attack tactics.
Amidst the CCP’s military activity and speculation about future conflict, internal problems within the CCP’s military have also surfaced. Xi Jinping’s ongoing purge of the CCP’s military, resulting in the removal of experienced generals, has raised concerns about the combat capabilities of the new leadership. This internal chaos, combined with the lack of amphibious combat capability, may hinder the CCP’s ability to pursue annexation of Taiwan through military force.