The Alberta and federal governments are engaged in a public exchange of letters, urging each other to be transparent and accountable ahead of a national meeting to discuss Alberta’s proposal to withdraw from the Canada Pension Plan (CPP). Finance Minister Nate Horner, in his letter to federal Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland, claims that Ottawa has access to private data that could impact Alberta’s claim to receive 53 percent of CPP assets if it leaves the plan. The province of Alberta argues that it should receive $334 billion from the CPP based on a third-party analysis it commissioned, while economists and the CPP investment board believe this number to be much lower and more aligned with Alberta’s population representation of 15 percent.
The $334 billion figure has become the central aspect of the debate, which has garnered national attention and raised concerns about the implications of Alberta’s withdrawal from the CPP. Quebec is the only province that is not part of the national plan, having established its own system when the CPP was created. Alberta Premier Danielle Smith’s government is investing $7.5 million in an engagement campaign that highlights the benefits of going it alone and downplays the risks.
Freeland, in her letter to Premier Smith, emphasizes the importance of ensuring that Albertans are fully informed about the benefits of staying in the CPP and the risks of opting out. She underscores the strong performance of CPP investments and stresses that withdrawing from the plan would jeopardize the retirements of millions of Albertans. While Alberta has the right to withdraw, Freeland believes that doing so would be a historic, costly, and irreversible mistake.
Premier Smith is waiting for feedback from a public engagement panel to determine if there is enough public interest to warrant a referendum on leaving the CPP. The tentative date for the referendum is 2025, but this has been cast into doubt as the government wants to establish a concrete figure for Alberta’s share before proceeding. If an agreement cannot be reached, the matter may need to be resolved through the courts, which could take years.
During question period, the Opposition NDP reported that thousands of Albertans are expressing their opposition to leaving the CPP. Finance critic Shannon Phillips called on Minister Horner to set a referendum date to settle the issue definitively. Minister Horner responded by stating that the conversation is ongoing and that no decision has been made to proceed with a referendum.