Two years after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the Biden administration is reconsidering the likelihood that the war will end in a negotiated settlement. Ukrainian leadership aims for the total recovery of its occupied territories while Russia seeks the demilitarization of Ukraine. However, experts suggest that neither side is close to achieving these objectives. U.S. officials are hopeful that the losses inflicted on Russia may lead to a negotiated settlement preserving Ukraine’s sovereignty.
Under Secretary of State Victoria Nuland highlighted Russia’s losses in the conflict so far. Despite Ukraine’s progress, it is running out of U.S. support, leading to a brutal stalemate. Nuland described the line of control as a “meat grinder” and noted Russia’s strategy of waiting for U.S. support to diminish.
Ms. Nuland emphasized the importance of Ukraine being in a stronger position before negotiating a settlement. While the U.S. is prepared to offer diplomatic assistance, the ultimate decision lies with Ukraine. The House’s delay in providing additional security assistance to Ukraine has stalled negotiations. Both sides are seeking advantages in the conflict to secure leverage for potential peace talks in the future.
The eventual outcome of the war will have significant implications for the security of the United States and its allies. While Russia’s current occupied territory provides strategic advantages, Washington and Moscow must find common ground to address global issues. The ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine will impact the ability of the U.S. to project power and influence in other areas of geostrategic concern.