An analyst suggested that North Korea has a belief that the United States is exhausted, while Pyongyang continued and intensified shelling into South Korean waters, leading to increased tensions on the Korean Peninsula on January 5, 2024. South Korea was advised to enhance its capabilities in order to deal with the current crisis, according to a military expert. The statement was made a few days into 2024 in response to North Korea’s actions. Kim Jong Un commented at a congress on December 30, 2023 that North-South relations and unification policy would undergo a significant change.
This shift pointed to a relationship between North and South Korea being described as “no longer a kinship or homogeneous relationship but has completely become a relationship between two hostile countries, two belligerents at war.” North Korea has been firing artillery shells close to Yeonpyeong Island and announced that this was a test to determine the South Korean military’s detection capabilities. Following the allegations, the South Korean military refuted that it was a form of psychological warfare and demanded North Korea cease military activities escalating tensions. Kim Taewoo, a professor at Konyang University, expressed concerns that these incidents may increase political, philosophical, and regional divisions in Korea.
He believed Kim Yo Jong’s provocative statements are designed to polarize public opinion in South Korea. The tense situation has led to two schools of thought regarding North Korea in South Korea. Mr. Kim also mentioned that North Korea’s escalating efforts sought to impact the upcoming parliamentary elections in South Korea. This year’s parliamentary elections in South Korea will also be affected by the country’s polarized public opinion on North Korea.
The analyst also highlighted the increased hostilities between North and South Korea and the recent warm-up in relations between North Korea and Japan, and the United States. North Korea appears to be aiming to improve relations with the U.S. and Japan meanwhile isolating South Korea. Mr. Kim expressed concern that North Korea’s move is no accident. The U.S. has condemned North Korea’s recent activities and emphasized its continued cooperation with South Korea and Japan.
The current situation can be traced back to the ninth plenary session of the 8th Central Committee of the Workers’ Party at the end last year, when Kim Jong Un characterized North and South Korea as hostile entities that could not be reunited. He pointed out that North Korea had foreseen these provocations as early as late last year. According to him, on January 5, North Korea conducted a series of artillery shellings that landed in prohibited waters in the Yellow Sea between North and South Korea, causing South Korea to act to defuse the situation. The South Korean government has urged residents to evacuate and suspended passenger ship routes. He stated that North Korea’s actions have amounted to a cancellation of the military contract signed two years prior.
The tense situation on the Korean Peninsula has had an international impact, leading to polarization of public opinion in South Korea. The analyst believes that North Korea has acted in response to the U.S.’ strengths being diverted to other conflicts and their view that the new Cold War situation is favorable. Since 2019, aggressive moves against the South’s threats by North Korea have increased, signaling that North Korea believes that the United States is too exhausted to interfere in any way.