The International Monetary Fund (IMF) released a study on January 14, stating that around 40 percent of jobs worldwide will be impacted by artificial intelligence (AI), with developed economies facing greater exposure to AI, affecting about 60 percent of high-skilled jobs. The report warned that AI could deepen ‘income and wealth inequality within countries.’ Less developed economies are at lower risk of exposure to AI, but also less prepared to take advantage of AI benefits due to lack of infrastructure and skilled workforces.
The report also noted that AI will impact high-skilled jobs and could lead to increased productivity for about half of the affected jobs, but it could also cause labor demand reduction, lower wages, and limited hiring for the other half. In extreme scenarios, some jobs may even disappear. The study also highlighted the potential for AI to exacerbate inequality, as it may complement higher-income workers more significantly and boost capital returns, favoring high earners.
IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva stressed the need for comprehensive social safety nets and retraining programs for vulnerable workers to make the AI transition more inclusive and to prevent further stoking of social tensions. The IMF has developed an AI-preparedness Index for 125 countries, which found that wealthier countries are better prepared for AI integration than developing economies. The report suggests regulatory frameworks for advanced and emerging economies for responsible maximization of AI benefits and advises low-income countries to increase infrastructure development and skilled labor force training to narrow the technological gap.
The IMF’s report was released ahead of the 2024 World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, where AI is expected to be a prominent subject. The study is not the only one looking into how AI will impact the world economy. Goldman Sachs’ study found that generative AI could boost the world GDP by 7 percent, and a PwC research estimated that AI could add trillions of dollars to the world economy by 2030.